North American semiconductor order shipping ratio upward breakthrough

March 28 news, according to media reports, the North American semiconductor BB value in North America (North American semiconductor order shipping ratio) was 1.01. Since the index fell to a trough of 0.71 last September, it has been rising for the fifth consecutive month, and the trend of industrial recovery has been further confirmed. At the same time, this is also the first time since the BB value fell below 1 in October 2010 and stood at 1.0 in the past 17 months.

From the breakdown of the data, the amount of orders for the current month was US$13.33 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 16.47% (previously a decrease of 21.56%). The worst time of the order occurred in September 2011, when the amount of orders decreased by 43.89% year-on-year, and since then, the decline has been narrowing in 5 months; the amount of shipments has been 13.19 billion US dollars, a decrease of 28.27% year-on-year, which is since 2010 5 After the month-on-year increase in shipments entered a downward avenue, it rebounded for the first time, indicating that demand for warmer orders had already been reflected in shipments.

According to historical data, the semiconductor BB value in North America has risen for three consecutive months, and the probability of a rebound in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index will exceed 70%; for five consecutive months, it can be confirmed that the rebound trend is established.

The research center believes that this round of BB values ​​has rebounded strongly. First, it benefited from the short-term inventory replenishment in the industry, and second, it benefited from the recovery of terminal demand.

Market research company iSuppli pointed out that the average semiconductor inventory days in the fourth quarter of 2011 increased from 81.3 days in the previous quarter to 84.1 days, and it is expected to fall to 83.7 days in the first quarter of this year. Manufacturers are optimistic about the prospects of the industry, strong willingness to make up the inventory, and the off-season in the first quarter is not weak. However, it is worth noting that, since the fourth quarter of 2010, the global semiconductor inventory has been high and volatile, there has been no large-scale destocking, and therefore there is no large-scale inventory restocking.

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