At the "Intelligent Manufacturing Development Seminar" sponsored by the China Machine Tool & Tooling Industry Association recently, Cai Weici, a special advisor to the China National Machinery Industry Federation, pointed out that China's machinery industry is facing severe challenges under the new normal, mainly manifested in the transition from supply shortage to oversupply, and by investment entities. Driven by innovation and driven by the expansion of production capacity to improve quality and efficiency.
From January to September this year, the growth rate of the machinery industry was not only higher than the industrial average, but also higher than the level of the same period of last year. The increase in efficiency was higher than the main revenue of the same period, which laid a good foundation for achieving steady growth throughout the year. At present, the main economic indicators of the machinery industry keep growing, the development trend is stable, and the growth of the main indicators exceeds expectations, and market confidence has steadily increased.
Economic performance indicators are stable
From January to August 2017, the indicators for the economic operation of the machinery industry remained stable. From January to August, the value-added of machinery industry increased by 11% year-on-year, 0.1 percentage points higher than that of January-July (10.9%), which was 2.3% higher than the growth rate of machinery industry of the same period of the previous year (8.7%); and continued to be higher than that of the national industry respectively. (6.7%) and manufacturing (7.2%) 4.3, 3.8 percentage points.
In the major categories of industries, the automobile manufacturing industry continues to lead the growth of the entire industry. From January to August, the industrial added value increased by 13.1% year-on-year, 2.1 percentage points higher than the industry average.
Electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing rose slightly month by month. From January to August, the growth rate was 10.4% year-on-year, which was 0.4 percentage points higher than that of January-July (10%) and 1.6 percentage points higher than the growth rate (8.8%) of the same period of the previous year. The general equipment manufacturing and special equipment manufacturing industries had a low base year-on-year, and they rose significantly from January to August 2017, increasing by 11.1% and 12.1% year-on-year, respectively, and accelerating over the same period of the previous year (4.6%, 5.4%). 6.7 percentage points.
From January to August, 91 products of the 119 kinds of major products monitored by the machinery industry increased 91% year-on-year, accounting for 76.47%; 28 products decreased year-on-year, accounting for 23.53%. Especially excavated shovel soil transportation machinery, compaction machinery, industrial automation control system, special instruments for environmental monitoring, optical instruments, cameras, printing special equipment, machine tool numerical control devices, gold cutting tools, large power transformer low voltage switch panels, industrial boilers, Rolling bearings, powder metallurgy parts, springs, and metal containers all decreased from the previous year's year-on-year decline to double-digit year-on-year growth.
In the first eight months, the state of the industrial machinery industry continued to improve, and the automotive and electrical appliance industry remained the main supporting force. The non-automotive industry added a profit of 81.781 billion yuan, accounting for 65.64% of the newly added profits of the machinery industry, driving the growth of machinery industry profits by 9.64 percentage points. Among the non-automotive industries, the construction machinery industry, instrumentation, and petrochemical general industries each contributed more than one percentage point to the growth of the profit growth of the machinery industry, which was significantly better than that of the previous year.
Industrial price index picked up slowly
In August 2017, the ex-factory price of industrial producers nationwide rose by 6.3% year-on-year, the price of national production materials increased by 8.3% year-on-year, and the ex-factory price index of machinery industry producers rose by only 0.7%, still lower than the ex-factory price index of industrial and raw material producers.
In August, the ex-factory price index of industrial equipment manufacturers in the general equipment manufacturing industry increased by 0.8% year-on-year, that of special equipment manufacturers rose by 0.7% year-on-year, that of electrical machinery and equipment machinery rose by 2.4% year-on-year, that of automobile manufacturers decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, and instrument and meter manufacturing Industry decreased by 0.2% year-on-year.
The import and export downturn in foreign trade has improved, and the growth rate has achieved sustained growth. Imports and exports of foreign trade all fell out of the year-on-year decline. From January to July, the total import and export volume of the machinery industry was 395.439 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 8.91% year-on-year (-6.95% over the same period of last year), 15.86 percentage points higher than the growth rate of the same period of the previous year. Imports amounted to US$16.816 billion, an increase of 11.78% year-on-year (8.0% over the same period of last year), an increase of 19.84 percentage points; exports reached USD227.623 billion, an increase of 6.88% year-on-year (6.16% over the same period of last year), an increase of 13.04 percentage points; foreign trade import Both export growth rate and export growth rate decreased from the same period last year to the same period last year. The import growth rate was faster than the export growth rate of 5.09 percentage points. The machinery industry achieved a trade surplus of US$59.807 billion.
From January to July, the import and export growth rate of the machinery industry was lower than the national foreign trade growth rate of 3.39 percentage points. Among them, exports were lower than the national foreign trade by 1.42 percentage points, and imports were lower than the national foreign trade by 5.92 percentage points.
The eastern region is an important support for the growth of foreign trade in the machinery industry. In the first seven months of the year, the eastern region of the machinery industry exported 203.647 billion U.S. dollars, a year-on-year increase of 6.33%, accounting for 89.47% of the machinery industry's exports, and played an important role in supporting the stable growth of the machinery industry's exports.
From the perspective of growth rate, the growth rate of imports and exports in the central region was faster than that in the eastern and western regions. From January to July, imports from the central region increased by 25.51% year-on-year, which was 15.15 and 13.31 percentage points faster than that in the east and west regions respectively. The export growth rate in the central region was 15.72%. %, respectively, faster than the eastern and western regions 9.39,9.7 percentage points.
Fixed asset investment remains low
From January to August, the machinery industry realized a total investment of 327.65 billion yuan in fixed assets, an increase of 3.2% year-on-year, an increase of 0.71 percentage points over the same period of the previous year (2.49%), and lower than the growth rate of fixed assets investment of the whole society (7.8%) of 4.6 percentage points. , 1.3% lower than the manufacturing industry (4.5%), and the growth rate has always maintained a low level.
From January to August, the growth rate of investment in machinery industry and the country and manufacturing industry was compared with the fixed assets investment of machinery industry in the month of August of 419.79 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.27%, and a decrease of 1.24 percentage points from January to July (-1.03%).
The decline in funding has continued to narrow. From January to August, the actual amount of capital invested by the machinery industry was 309.402 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.11%, a decrease of 1.78 percentage points from January to July, and the proportion of self-financed funds of large companies fell by 3.35% year-on-year, and the decline narrowed by 1.35 percentage points. The decline in the second quarter narrowed by 1.44 percentage points.
Market demand structure upgrade accelerated
Under the leadership of the supply-side structural reform, the market demand structure has been upgraded and consumer- and investment-related products have all grown. The data shows that the growth products that are closely related to the consumer market are expanding. In January-August, the production and sales of autos completed 17.6783 million vehicles and 17.5111 million vehicles respectively, an increase of 4.67% and 4.25% over the same period of the previous year. From January to August, automobile-powered automotive engines grew by 23.34% year-on-year, auto instruments increased by 10.78%, hydraulics increased by 5.34%, pneumatics increased by 1.72%, seals increased by 5.34%, molds increased by 6.1%, and parking facilities increased. The market demand was strong; the number of cameras related to tourism increased by 17.21% year-on-year, of which digital cameras increased by 28.79% year-on-year; the cumulative total of plastic processing-related equipment related to consumer and consumer product processing grew by 16.33% year-on-year, and cumulative total of packaging equipment increased by 4.37% year-on-year. Processing machinery increased by 5.54% year-on-year, agricultural products processing machinery increased by 9.82% year-on-year, special equipment for feed production increased by 7.66% year-on-year; various types of low-voltage electrical appliances related to people's livelihood consumption accounted for 18.19% year-on-year, cables for communications and electronic networks increased by 7.08% year-on-year, and cable The growth rate was 9.36%, the number of electric hand tools increased by 12.79% year-on-year, and the total number of motorcycles increased by 9.05% year-on-year.
Sales of products related to environmental protection have grown rapidly. In August, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 72,000 units and 68,000 units respectively, an increase of 67.3% and 76.3% respectively year-on-year. From January to August, special instrumentation for environmental monitoring increased by 21.64% year-on-year, environmental pollution prevention and control equipment increased by 8.32% year-on-year, of which water pollution prevention and control equipment increased by 19.99% year-on-year; cumulative solid waste treatment equipment increased by 21.43% year-on-year respectively.
The growth momentum of products related to smart manufacturing and national industrial upgrading continued to improve. This year, the product growth in the instrumentation industry is promising, especially in the areas of environmental monitoring, food safety, smart manufacturing, and third-party inspection system integration projects. Specific products such as industrial automation instrumentation and control systems have grown by 18.42% year-on-year. , Accelerated 25.89 percentage points over the same period of last year. The testing machine increased by 75.63% year-on-year, analytical instruments and devices increased by 9.38% year-on-year, and optical instruments increased by 6.33% year-on-year. The gold-cutting machine tool in machine tool products increased by 7.86% year-on-year, of which CNC machine tools increased by 0.75% year-on-year, and machine tool numerical control devices increased by 33.92% year-on-year. The year-on-year growth rate of the machine tools increased to the same period of last year; the demand for high-grade numerical control bearings was relatively large.
The national infrastructure construction drove the growth of construction machinery products. The construction of airports, railways, highways, mines, and rural water conservancy infrastructure facilities has gradually improved in terms of funds, and has led to a significant increase in construction machinery and equipment. From January to August, all 10 major products in the construction machinery industry grew positively: the excavator increased by 68.28%, the loader increased by 28.71%, the concrete machinery increased by 4.93%, and the compaction machinery increased by 18.16%.
The national key construction projects have stimulated the growth of related products. In the national key transmission channel construction projects and distribution network construction and transformation and a new round of rural power grid transformation and upgrading project, the power transmission-related products to maintain growth, of which, transmission and transformation-related transformers increased by 2.99% year-on-year, including large power transformers The year-on-year increase of 12.05%, transformers increased by 2.34%, power capacitors increased by 15.53%, high-voltage switchboards increased by 6.64%, high-voltage switchgears (above 110,000 volts) increased by 9.11%, power cables increased by 4.87%, insulating products increased year-on-year Increased by 16.14%.
Major difficulties and problems
From the data, it can be seen that the market demand for machinery industry has been recovered, but the utilization rate of production capacity is significantly different. From January to July, the accumulative orders of key industrial enterprises in the machinery industry increased 13.66% year-on-year, 0.54 percentage points lower than the previous June, and 9.39 percentage points higher than the previous year (4.81%). However, due to the traditional energy and raw material industries, the production capacity is still in the capacity-removing state. The relevant new oil and natural gas equipment, smelting equipment, power generation equipment, heavy mining machinery and other industries were obviously insufficient for new investment orders, but the number of reconstruction and transformation projects gradually increased. Different industries and different companies have great differences. Some companies that have advanced product development, transformation, and upgrading are doing well, but otherwise they are struggling to survive.
According to a survey of more than 70 key enterprises in the machinery industry, 51% of the surveyed enterprises have a capacity utilization rate of less than 80%, and nearly 20% of them have a capacity utilization rate of less than 60%. However, the results of a recent questionnaire survey on the main self-owned brand manufacturers of industrial robots show that nearly 90% of the companies' new orders in the first half of the year achieved year-on-year growth, with 70% of the company's orders increasing by more than 20%.
The fierce market competition, difficult product prices, and transitional competition have affected the normal market order. Low-cost competition is frequent, and some good companies and good products have also been forced to cut prices. Some companies have reported that despite slight increases in product prices, they are still at a low level. The prices of raw materials and accessories have risen more recently, and profit margins have basically been squeezed out. It is difficult to increase the prices of mechanical products. The long-term low-price competition in the market environment has seriously affected the enthusiasm of enterprise product innovation.
The cost pressure is still large. Recently, China Machinery Industry Federation conducted a questionnaire survey on some key enterprises on taxation costs, administrative charges, financing costs, energy costs, and labor costs. The results show that the government’s tax reduction and fee reduction has achieved initial success. Nearly 30% of the surveyed enterprises feel that the administrative fees have dropped; however, expensive labor, expensive financing, and high energy consumption are still common problems in the production and operation of the company; Of the surveyed companies, 76% reported that labor costs had risen, 60% had reported higher financing costs, and 44% had reported increased energy costs. In addition, the increase in logistics costs and the rapid increase in raw material prices are also factors in the recent increase in the cost of machinery companies. Recently, companies have reported that the automotive industry has increased pressure on the cost of complete vehicle companies, which has increased the pressure on downstream supporting companies.
(Statistical Information Department of China Machinery Industry Federation)
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