According to relevant statistics, the total revenue of Taiwan-listed LED manufacturers in November 2010 was approximately NT$8.54 billion, compared with 8.69 billion yuan in October 2010 (MoM-2.1%, YoY+24%). In November, the LED chip factory and the packaging factory are still falling. Estimated December inventory and low season factors, short-term performance is still difficult to improve.
However, looking forward to 2011, the lighting market has introduced various subsidy policies in succession. Therefore, LEDinside believes that there is still room for growth in overall market demand in 2011. On the other hand, LEDinside estimates that the LCD backlight penetration rate of LCD TVs will rise from 18.5% in 2010 to more than 43% in 2011. Although there are still doubts about the high LCD TV inventory in the short term, it is estimated to be in 2011. After a season, the LED industry will restart its growth momentum.
From the LED industry index (LEDX) compiled by LEDinside, the index of the LED industry trend is observed through the performance of the LED industry market value. At present, the LED epitaxial index (ChipLEDX) has reached 4,235 points, and the LED package index (PackageLEDX) has also reached 4,866 points. Although it runs counter to the fundamentals, it can also be regarded as the overall market still has confidence in the development of the LED industry.
In November, Taiwan's overall upstream chip factory revenue was 4.02 billion, down 2.8% from October's revenue (YoY+25.4%). Taiwan's Dachang Crystal (Epistar) has a total revenue of NT$18.3 billion for the whole year. It is expected that the annual revenue will exceed RMB 20 billion, accounting for about 40% of the total LED Taiwan chip factory's output value.
The performance of the new century has grown steadily and continues to record high, with a monthly growth of 2.7% and an annual growth rate of 183.7%. Yanyuan Huiyang Investment will be opened in mid-December, and 20 MOCVD equipment will be introduced before the end of the year. The scale of the Yangzhou plant will double again in 2011, and the future MOCVD equipment is expected to reach 60 units.
LEDinside pointed out that the future development of Taiwanese factories in the Chinese market is closely related to the promotion of local government policies, both in terms of consumption and equipment supply.
In the downstream LED packaging factory, in November 2010, the overall LED packaging factory revenue reached 4.48 billion yuan, compared with 22.7% in October 2009, but compared with September, the overall decline slightly 1.4%.
Overall, Q4 faced a traditional off-season in 2010. Although new orders for large-size TV backlights began to ship, they still filled the decline in old specifications in the short term, and the small-size backlight orders for consumer applications such as mobile phones were due to off-season. The factors are declining, so the overall LED performance still has to wait until after Q1 2011 to restart the growth momentum.
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