The trend of IC price in the next 10 years will stabilize the output value steadily upwards

Research Institute IC Insight pointed out that although the compound annual growth rate of IC shipments in the next 10 years is not as strong as in the past 15 years, the trend of IC unit prices will remain relatively stable, which is expected to drive the continuous increase in output value. The average unit price for 2011-2021 is estimated The compound growth rate will increase slightly by 1%, and the compound annual growth rate of shipments will be 7%. From 2011 to 2021, the compound annual growth rate of the IC market scale will reach 8%, and it will be estimated to reach US$573.8 billion by 2021. As much.

According to IC Insight, although the global economy is unclear and the improvement of new production processes has raised barriers, the IC shipment momentum in the next 10 years will not be as strong as in the past 15 years. Estimated global wafer shipments will total 192.7 billion in 2011. The growth rate reached 380 billion in 2021, and the compound annual growth rate is about 7%, which is weaker than the compound annual growth rate of 9.5% in the past 15 years (1996-2011).

However, IC Insight believes that due to the increase in the number of single chips, we can see that the average unit price will go up steadily. It is estimated that ASP will gradually increase from 1.37 US dollars in 2011 (per IC) to 1.51 US dollars in 2021. The compound growth rate is about 1.51%; the average unit price growth rate for the past 15 years is -4%.

IC Insight estimates that with the steady ASP trend, the compound annual growth rate of IC output value will also be stable compared to the past 15 years. Estimates can grow from 264 billion US dollars in 2011 to 573.8 billion U.S. dollars, and the compound growth rate is about 8%. This is better than 5.2% in 1996-2011.