After ten years, you may be in a new technical position or unemployed

Electronic enthusiasts early eight:

In 1589, when the British William Lee invented the knitting machine, he was delighted to think that a family woman like his wife could be freed from the heavy needlework.

In order to obtain patent protection, he also deliberately went to London to rent a factory and show his new invention to Queen Elizabeth I. At that time, the United States, the Patent Office had not yet been established, and all patents were subject to the approval of the King.

What disappointed William Li was that the Queen refused to grant him a patent, but instead yelled: 'Your invention will turn my poor subjects into jealousy. 'These words also represent the concern of the Hosiery Association: this will make craftsmen obsolete. Because of the relationship with the hosiery association, William finally had to leave Britain to go to other places.

This resolution is ridiculous today, but it truly reflects the power of British society at the time: the hosiery association has a much higher political influence than the inventor. It was not until the glorious revolution broke out in 1688 that the bourgeoisie seized power and the political influence of the craftsmen gradually declined, opening the door for the popularity of the machine. In 1769, the British Parliament enacted that the destruction of the machine will be put to death.

From the Queen of England refused to issue a patent to the knitting machine, to the legislative provisions to destroy the death of the machine, what happened in the middle?

The British found that moving the machine into the factory only made a small number of craftsmen unemployed, but it brought the gospel to unskilled work – they didn’t need to master the advanced skills, they just had to take care of the machine, so the factory owner Earned a lot of money, and a large number of people who have no skills to get a job. As more and more people benefit from machine production, the voice of boycotting machines throughout the British society is weakening.

The magnificent industrial revolution of the 19th century was also a history of the workers' 'de-skilled' and the poor standing up. The first recorded production line appeared in 1804, but it was not until the late 19th century that Ford produced a cheap T-car, the production line was used on a large scale. By 1913, when Ford designed the new equipment line, it was designed to be easy to operate. The 19th century was almost a century of small white workers, and this situation was not reversed until the 20th century.

When electricity replaces steam as an energy source that drives the civilized world, the factory does not need as many people to handle, handle, and assemble. These jobs are basically replaced by automation. At the same time, the proportion of non-first-line white-collar workers in factory employees began to rise. From this moment on, the competitive track of the 20th century labor force switched from physical strength to education and technology.

The typewriter was invented in the 1860s, but it was not widely used until the 1910s, and it quickly gave birth to a large typist population. Since then, the invention of similar telephones and printing machines has stimulated the cost of information transmission. The need for office clerks.

But this wave of office white-collar jobs will soon be replaced by another, more powerful machine - the computer.

From 1945 to 1980, the cost of using computers was reduced by 37% annually. Since then, telephone operators have been laid off in large numbers because the new phones have no manual transfer. Then, in the 1960s, GM began using industrial robots, and in the 1970s, aviation was scheduled to start electronically. At the same time, bar code scanners and ATMs began to appear in supermarkets and banks. As a result, the work of waiting for typewriters and telephones disappeared, but the positions of workstations serving computers and the Internet have sprung up.

The most prominent impact of the computer revolution on employment is the growing polarization: research shows that from the 1980s to 2005, US high-skilled/high-paying jobs (such as data analysts, programmers) and low-skills/lower Revenue jobs (home care, maintenance workers) have grown significantly, while a large number of medium-tech jobs have barely increased. This phenomenon is not only owned by the United States, but other countries are also experiencing a U-shaped transformation of the job market.

Throughout the hundreds of years, the impact of technology applications on employment has two main points: First, for most workers is undoubtedly devastating, they need to re-adjust their labor skills; Second, encourage capital to enter those production More efficient industries and guide new employment trends. Under this dual influence, a core question is highlighted: Is there any more new jobs created by new technologies than the traditional jobs it destroyed?

Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael Osborne, two scholars at the University of Cambridge in the UK, have accurately measured in 2013 that in the next ten to twenty years, about 47% of the 702 jobs in the United States are at stake, including the moment. Traffic, logistics, the army, manufacturing personnel and bloated office administrative posts, as well as insurance sales, real estate agents will disappear in large numbers, replaced by computers.

The employment trend of the labor force since the 20th century and the replacement of low-skilled jobs by high-skilled jobs will also turn into a turning point. The higher the level of education, the higher the wages.

In the next decade, the talent competition will switch again. Research by Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael Osborne also shows that in the era of automation and artificial intelligence, creativity/creative, social skills/emotional intelligence are of the utmost importance to workers.

In 1993, 67% of McKinsey employees were MBAs, and in 2003 this percentage had fallen to 41%. McKinsey realized that customers have been tired of traditional research reports filled with various forms and data, and they have to be expressed in a more artistic and attractive way, so they are recruiting more and more MFA (Master of Arts) to help MBA. We polish the report.

As Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael Osborne predict, in the next decade, paralegals will be laid off in large numbers, but lawyers will become more and more popular; actors are still unique, they need to show their expressions and physical movements in different roles. The breadth and depth of emotions and personalities are places that artificial intelligence is currently unable to reach; despite the emergence of various automated writing software, journalists who are good at writing in-depth reports are still scarce.

In short, those who need art, intuition, inspiration, high degree of personalization, interpersonal communication, and emotional communication have less exposure to artificial intelligence, and those with skilled social skills and creativity will be the future. A big winner of ten years.

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