In the Chinese economy, which has been under pressure for a long time in the complicated situation at home and abroad, some key indicators that have continued to fall in the third quarter have reversed.
A number that looks very small. This is the year-on-year increase in the national industrial producer price (PPI) in September. The 54-month PPI continued to grow negatively, and the “boulder†that has been pressed against the industrial enterprises nationwide for a long time has finally loosened, allowing operators to see the dawn of increased profits.
“This means that there is a substantial change in the supply and demand relationship in the industrial sector,†said Sheng Laiyun, a spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics.
The Chinese economy has run into the third quarter, especially between August and September, and there have been a series of new changes that are related to each other.
-- Corporate profits have picked up. In the first eight months, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 8.4% year-on-year, which reversed the situation of sustained negative growth last year. In particular, the profit growth in August was nearly 20%, a record high in recent years.
-- Industrial production has picked up. Industrial growth in the third quarter was 6.1%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points over the first half of the year. After entering the third quarter, indicators such as industrial electricity consumption, power generation, and freight volume have all improved significantly.
-- Investment growth has picked up. In the first three quarters, the fixed asset investment of the whole society increased by 8.2%, 0.1 percentage points faster than the previous eight months. In August and September, the growth rate of investment accelerated for two consecutive months.
-- Corporate loans have risen and fallen. In September, the operating loan was changed from a decrease of 41.7 billion yuan last month to an increase of 206.3 billion yuan. The fixed-asset loan was changed from a decrease of 100.1 billion yuan last month to an increase of 226.3 billion yuan, and corporate financing demand rose.
-- Both the leading index and the confidence index have rebounded. From August to September, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) remained at 50.4% for two consecutive months, the highest in nearly two years; the Entrepreneur Confidence Index and the Bankers' Macroeconomic Confidence Index continued to rise.
Looking back at the LED industry, from the data of the three quarterly reports of LED listed companies, the overall revenue of LED companies is still in a fast-rising channel, and the profitability of some enterprises has also improved from the first half of the year.
In the field of LED epitaxial chips, Sanan Optoelectronics and Huacan Optoelectronics are all in a state of saturated production capacity, and subsequent orders are guaranteed by higher standards. At the same time, these companies do not rule out the possibility that the price of some subsequent products will continue to fall back.
In the field of LED packaging, thanks to the continuous growth of the terminal application market, the net profit of listed companies in the first three quarters is in a positive growth state. At the same time, a series of earlier mergers and acquisitions have basically produced the expected benefits.
In the field of LED lighting, in the case of macroeconomic downturn and rising prices of raw materials such as upstream chips and packaging, some LED lighting companies have maintained rapid growth of LED lighting business through cost control, and guaranteed corporate profitability. Stable.
In contrast, due to the market squeeze of Chinese LED companies and the adjustment of their own business, the revenue and net profit growth of foreign LED companies are relatively weak.
Can modularization open the bottleneck of CSP lighting application?
The characteristics determine that it is impossible to completely replace the traditional SMD in the general lighting application in the next five years, but it does not prevent the enterprise from accelerating the product development and marketing of CSP.
Recently, Samsung LED has introduced a CSP LED module with color adjustability and increased compatibility modules. These modules will be mainly used in LED spotlights and downlights. This is Samsung's official launch of the first generation of CSP in 2014, is constantly accelerating the development speed of CSP new products.
CSP packaging has always had its own technical barriers, such as: CSP product size is small, mechanical strength is inherently insufficient, material sorting test process is difficult, SMT placement technology requirements are higher. Therefore, the application of CSP free packaging to luminaire manufacturers is a new topic, and many problems remain to be solved.
Packaging can be simplified, so packaging companies must constantly innovate and adjust, give full play to their mid-stream advantages, and find their own value in the extension of both upstream and downstream. And provide solutions and added value for downstream customers in modular, functional, and intelligent LED applications.
From the perspective of lighting companies, existing patch devices cannot meet the accuracy requirements of CSP, and the accuracy of the die placement and alignment machine is required.
According to insiders of Guoxing Optoelectronics, the company's NS-CSP series uses exclusive patented ceramic film substrate technology (C-TFS) to recrystallize flip-chips on ultra-thin precision ceramic films, using ceramics with high strength and low expansion. The coefficient characteristic buffers the epitaxial layer of the chip and the external circuit to achieve high reliability operation of the CSP device.
The industry staged a real version of "Chinese partner"
This company, which once created the LED industry from the company's establishment to the shortest record of successful IPOs, is experiencing a "Chinese-style partner".
This week, Ganzhao Optoelectronics (300102) issued an announcement. Mr. Wang Weiyong applied for resignation from the chairman of the company and the chairman of the strategic development committee of the board of directors for personal reasons. After resigning, he still held the position of director of the company.
Wang Weiyong holds 112 million shares of the company (accounting for 15.92% of the current company's total share capital). Wang Weiyong plans to reduce the company's shares by no more than 25 million shares in the next six months from October 18, that is, no more than the current company's total share capital. 3.55%.
Before this reduction, Wang Weiyong was the company's largest shareholder, but not the company's controlling shareholder and actual controller. After this reduction, Wang Weiyong is no longer the company's largest shareholder. The company's largest shareholder is Shenzhen and Junzheng Asset Management Co., Ltd. and their concerted actions. The company is still in the state of no actual controller. The implementation of this share reduction plan will not lead to changes in the control of listed companies.
In the first half of the year, the film "China Partner" has caused countless resonances. People are moved by the "new dreams" of the three founders in the early days of their entrepreneurial career. They also succumbed to the benefits of the three people "cutting constantly and resolving chaos" after the expansion of wealth. entanglement.
In fact, this scene is also constantly being staged in the turbulent capital market. It is the representative of the “Myth†that once created the fastest listing of the GEM. With the termination of the “Consensus Action Agreement†by the three founding shareholders of the company (Deng Dianming, Wang Weiyong and Wang Xiangwu) in 2013, the real-life version of “Chinese Partner†was more ups and downs than the film version.
The price of raw materials is rising, and it is tears to say more!
Last month, two aluminum substrate manufacturers in the WeChat circle of friends issued a price increase notice.
As the electronics industry is about to enter the peak season, it directly leads the board manufacturers to have no right to speak when ordering raw materials. At present, raw material prices are changing every day, causing some customers to start panic buying.
With the advent of the peak season, the tension between supply and demand will be more sustainable. It will be difficult to ease the price increase in a short period of time. This year, we should not see the hope of not raising prices or stabilizing prices.
Hu Yong, sales director of Ward Technology, believes that “the price of copper foil is rising, and the price of sheet metal manufacturers is also rising. You are going up, and I am also rising. As a result, the whole industry is going up. The more you buy, the more you buy, which leads to the illusion of out of stock.â€
The PCB is divided into two types, a metal substrate and a glass fiber board, both of which are made of copper foil. Among them, the fiberglass board has been monopolized by several companies, with an increase of 40-45%. The aluminum substrate has not yet been monopolized, so the aluminum substrate material is currently rising by about 15%.
This week, Hu Yong’s “A Letter to Customers and Peers†revealed the corporate suffering of the PCB industry’s rising prices.
The package expansion horn is blown again
In the context of the price correction of some packaged devices, the new round of packaging capacity expansion has started again.
This round of expansion cycle, on the one hand, is affected by the growth of downstream market demand, on the other hand, the competitiveness of general lighting devices that are gradually weakened by traditional overseas packaging giants, and the influence of SMEs on the scale of production capacity of conventional general-purpose devices.
Guoxing Optoelectronics announced that it plans to invest no more than 400 million yuan to expand the company's packaging projects. This is the third time in a year that Guoxing Optoelectronics has expanded its packaging project.
For now, white LED devices, LED modules and small-pitch RGB products are subject to varying degrees of capacity challenges. Guoxing Optoelectronics expects that “after the completion of this round of expansion projects, it will effectively alleviate the pressure on production capacity, continuously improve product quality, and further strengthen market development and cooperation.â€
Last month, Jingtai Co., Ltd. was officially put into operation at the new packaging base in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu. It is expected that 660 LED packaging production lines will be added in the first phase.
In Wang Gaoyang, deputy general manager of Hongli Zhihui, the capacity expansion is mainly reflected in three aspects. First, the number of market demand has increased. Second, the downstream order concentration trend has resulted in a small number of packaging plants that can choose matching capacity. Third, the scaled quality and cost performance advantages are more obvious.
In July this year, Hongli Zhihui's packaging base in Nanchang, Jiangxi was officially put into operation. The first phase of the project has a total investment of 1.009 billion yuan. It is the largest LED production base of the group. It is expected that the monthly capacity of LED packaging will reach 1000KK by the end of the year. The continuous expansion of the scale of packaging capacity has become the main driving force for the rapid growth of Hongli Zhihui's performance.
Commercial lighting "four modernization" trend highlights
Different from the general consumer lighting market, commercial lighting has become a special market in the LED lighting application market due to its integration of channel resources, product quality, innovative design and other competitive factors.
For the future demand trend of commercial lighting, Chen Shi, executive deputy general manager of Sidon Lighting, summed up four main types, one is miniaturization (favoring to beautify the space); the second is linearization (diversification of modeling); the third is intelligence (to facilitate different time, function, etc. to control the color temperature and efficiency of the luminaire); Fourth, modular (light source + electrical combination).
According to the statistics of the High-tech Research Institute LED Research Institute (GGII), the LED commercial lighting market in China will reach 35.8 billion yuan in 2016, accounting for about 10% of the total LED lighting application market.
Whether it is its own penetration rate or the overall proportion is relatively low, especially in the general market is becoming increasingly saturated, LED commercial lighting market is more attractive.
At the same time, the demand for lighting from commercial customers is changing. “Improving the human experience†is almost the starting point and destination for all future businesses.
Today's LED commercial lighting is no longer a traditional way to illuminate commercial premises. In addition to functional lighting, it is necessary to use lighting to highlight or enhance the product or corporate culture of the commercial premises, and use lighting to enhance the shopping experience and stimulate consumption.
Upstream chip capacity is saturated, corporate orders are saturated
On October 19th, Sanan Optoelectronics Co., Ltd. on the Shanghai Stock Exchange said that the MOCVD equipment disclosed in the company's interim report was fully produced by the end of the year. The company's orders have monthly orders and quarterly orders. Book to the end of the year. At present, the price of LED chips is stable, and the price of some varieties has increased.
LED chip production capacity is full, there are several current chip companies such as Jingyuan Optoelectronics and Huacan Optoelectronics.
According to Jingdian, as the demand for quaternary LEDs is still strong, LED backlight applications are expected to enter the off-season in the fourth quarter, but orders from Korean and mainland customers are still influx, and demand for smart phones and flashlights is also growing. In October, there will be an opportunity to challenge the full capacity of the production capacity, which will drive the fourth quarter operation to be better than expected.
In the first half of the year, Huacan Optoelectronics signed a strategic cooperation agreement with its main customer, Mulinsen. The content mainly includes that Mulinsen will give priority to purchasing the company's products under the same conditions. The amount of LED chip products purchased by Mulinsen from the company in the next three years will be no less than 1.5 billion. yuan.
Zhou Fuyun, chairman of Huacan Optoelectronics, previously revealed that on the day of the start of the Yiwu base on May 28, we had received an order of 2 billion yuan at the end of the year. Not only that, but the orders of the company within 3 years have also been filled, and many advance payments have been put in place.
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