In 2016 and 2017, the freezing season continued to break out, creating favorable conditions for the opening of the air-conditioning market in 2018, the expansion of production capacity by multiple brands, the emergence of new brands, and the enthusiasm of channel delivery, which also confirmed this fact.
However, many people in the industry are cautious about the trend of the 2018 freezing year. Whether there is a great uncertainty in the third quarter of the peak season, there will be great uncertainties in consumer demand, and the consumer demand will continue to escalate, environmental protection, raw material prices, real estate. Under the influence of multiple factors such as policy adjustment, the air-conditioning market will enter a consolidation period.
Real estate regulation frequently starts to cool down
On September 30, 2016, the central bank issued the "Notice of the People's Bank of China China Banking Regulatory Commission on Further Improving Housing Financial Services", which greatly increased the support for personal housing loan demand.
The following 2017 was a year of a new high in the real estate industry and the most intensive year in history. According to incomplete statistics, there are more than 150 property market regulation policies issued by Chaobaicheng, and hot cities continue to limit purchases, limit loans, price limits, sales restrictions, and business restrictions. For example, in September 2017, 11 second-tier cities were deepening their regulation and control. From October to November, the third- and fourth-tier cities were mainly expanded and restricted.
At the same time, a series of new concepts, new mechanisms and new models, such as shared property rights, long-term rental apartments, “dwelling without housing†and long-term mechanisms, all have a profound impact on future policies and market trends.
The impact of real estate policy regulation on household appliances and other fields has a certain lag. According to the data of Ovi Cloud, the sales growth rate of commercial housing in China has climbed from a low of 7.6% in 2014 to 22.5% in 2016. The growth rate of air-conditioner retail sales gradually increased from -4.8% in 2015 to 23.1%, setting a new high since 2011. There is a high probability that the two curves will fall back in 2018. Aowei Cloud expects that the air-conditioning market will be in a phased decline in 2018, with sales and sales falling by 5.4% and 3.7% respectively.
The "Economic Information Daily" believes that the real estate market has begun to cool down, but the regulation of the property market will remain strict, and the regulation will not withdraw in the next five years. The purchase restriction, limit loan, limit price, and restriction policy will be implemented and will continue to be patched if necessary.
Despite the possibility of a downward trend in the general trend, there are also many positive factors that create conditions for mainstream brands to achieve both scale and profit growth.
Internal and external upgrades bring new growth paths
The change from the demand side forced the industrial upgrading has been the key work content of the home appliance field in recent years, and it is also the only way for the future development of the enterprise. Air-conditioning intelligent, high-end, segmentation, and customization are unstoppable, and the average price of air conditioners has increased year by year. In particular, the high pricing strategy of leading brands represented by Gree, Midea and Haier has created a better living soil for the entire industry. Even in the e-commerce platform that acquired customers at low prices, the average retail price in 2016 and 2017 increased year-on-year.
Aowei cloud network data, the average retail price of air-conditioning e-commerce channel in 2016 was 2552 yuan, an increase of 3.9%, the average retail price in 2017 was 2822 yuan, an increase of 10.6% year-on-year. It is estimated that the average retail price of e-commerce channels in 2018 is 2938. In the year, the increase is expected to reach 4.1%. At the same time, the new town construction process has accelerated, and the potential for household appliances consumption in the third- and fourth-tier markets is considerable, and the channels continue to sink. Both the online and offline brands provide opportunities for scale expansion.
The air-conditioning leading enterprises have also actively adjusted the product structure, increased the proportion of medium and high-end products, and increased the unit price of passengers. The strategy of “putting up and selling expensive†and improving the quality of operation has become the common choice of many enterprises. According to the data of Aowei Cloud Network, the proportion of first-class energy efficiency frequency conversion hangs increased from 25.2% in 2016 to 34.4% in 2017. The change of frequency conversion hangs is more obvious, and the proportion increased from 15% to 36.2%. Take Gree as an example. In 2017, there were 94 models of frequency conversion hang-ups and 45 models of frequency conversion cabinets, an increase of 45 and 28 models respectively over the same period of the previous year.
In 2018, the speeches of senior executives also had higher requirements for product strength and quality of operation. At the annual Midea Group Management Annual Meeting on January 18th, Fang Hongbo, Chairman of Midea Group, clearly stated that the key business keywords of the United States in 2018 include: focusing on endogenous growth, operational excellence in the whole value chain, building product capabilities, etc. . Zheng Jianjiang, Chairman of the Oaks Group, said in his 2018 New Year message that one of the key work of Oaks in 2018 is "quality, innovation", further consolidating the connotative growth of "quality, innovation and efficiency".
At the time when the domestic market seeks new growth highlights through the transformation of products, operations, management and services, the national “Belt and Road†strategy has also brought “external†opportunities to home appliance companies. The overall air-conditioning penetration rate of the countries along the route is not high. According to the data of Aowei.com, as of 2016, the penetration rates of India, the Philippines and Vietnam are 13%, 14% and 15% respectively. The penetration rate of Thailand and Indonesia is slightly higher. It is 25%. Industry online data, from January to October 2017, in addition to TV products, the export volume growth rate and export growth rate of air-conditioning, refrigerator freezer and washing machine products in the “Belt and Road†region are much higher than those in the “Belt and Road†region. The unit price growth rate of the “One Belt, One Road†region of the four major household appliances products is also 5% higher than that of the non-“One Belt, One Road†region.
As a fully market-oriented industry, air-conditioning has ushered in a new stage of development in the era of developed Internet economy and the rise of new retail. A group of capitals have invested in the air-conditioning industry with great enthusiasm and expectations. It has also added a lot of points of attention to the 2018 cold year, which has intensified the competition. But as Fang Hongbo, chairman of Midea Group, mentioned in the "2018 China Manufacturing Forum: The New Industrial Revolution under the Global Manufacturing Change" forum, the fundamental transformation of traditional manufacturing needs to follow the nature and basic laws of business and seek new costs. Advantages, training to build differentiated capabilities, and achieving inter-industry transformation and upgrading are three important ways.
Hydraulic Servo Systems,Servo System Harness,Hydraulic Bldc Motor,Servo Motor Pump
Zhejiang Synmot Electrical Technology Co., Ltd , https://www.synmot-electrical.com