McKinsey China's artificial intelligence report faces three big mountains

BAT has focused on artificial intelligence at the IT Leaders Summit. Li Yanhong said: "The Internet is an appetizer, and artificial intelligence is the main dish." This is the big voice of artificial intelligence after the two sessions.

With the rapid disappearance of the demographic dividend, China is in urgent need of finding a new growth engine. Artificial intelligence-based automation can increase productivity and help China achieve its economic development goals. Global venture capital in the field of artificial intelligence jumped from $589 million in 2012 to more than $5 billion in 2016.

In this issue of intelligent internal reference, we recommend McKinsey's report on the future of artificial intelligence in China. The report combs the development history of artificial intelligence technology, and analyzes the possible role of this technology in China's social development, and predicts related industries and economic policies. frame. If you want to collect the full text of the report, you can download the keyword "nc140" in the smart thing (public number: zhidxcom).

The following are the dry goods presented by the smart internal reference:

The turning point is coming

*The degree of commercialization of different technical fields of artificial intelligence

AlphaGo successfully defeated Li Shishi, the champion of human world Go. The concept of artificial intelligence, a science fiction novel, seems to have become a reality from illusory fantasy overnight.

Traditional software programs are written by humans and contain specific instruction requirements. The working mode of artificial intelligence is completely different. Based on a common learning strategy, they can read massive amounts of “big data” and discover patterns, connections, and insights. Therefore, artificial intelligence can be automatically adjusted based on new data without having to reset the program.

In fact, in the 1950s and 1960s, the theory of artificial intelligence was initially formed. However, due to the failure of technology to achieve breakthrough progress, artificial intelligence could not achieve the expected results, so it fell into a period of silence.

In the next few decades, although there are many successful cases (such as IBM's supercomputer "Deep Blue" defeated the chess champion Gary Kasparov), but because the artificial intelligence in the real world is too isolated, it is not enough to support the big Commercialization of scale.

Now, we are in the revival of artificial intelligence, and the rapid advancement of data collection and organization, algorithms (especially machine learning) and high-performance computing has made revolutionary progress. Using machine learning, the artificial intelligence system has acquired inductive reasoning and decision-making capabilities, and has achieved some commercialization, which can serve as customer service, manage logistics, monitor factory machinery, optimize energy use, and analyze medical materials. Ability has pushed to a higher level.

Change is not only at the forefront of theory. It is regarded as the pioneer of the future super-intelligent system - various analytical tools for applying machine learning technology have appeared on the market. Applications in the financial, medical, and manufacturing industries are growing rapidly, and global venture capital in artificial intelligence has soared from $589 million in 2012 to more than $5 billion in 2016. McKinsey estimates that the total value of the artificial intelligence application market will reach $127 billion by 2025.

In the future, artificial intelligence can be a powerful tool for meeting some of the core challenges of society. In the medical field, artificial intelligence will greatly enhance our ability to analyze the human genome and develop personalized treatment options for patients, and even greatly accelerate the process of curing cancer, Alzheimer's disease and other diseases. In the field of environmental protection, artificial intelligence can analyze climate characteristics and reduce energy consumption on a large scale, helping humans to better monitor and respond to climate change issues. Artificial intelligence can even function outside the Earth, and he can help humans explore Mars and outer space.

A recent report from the McKinsey Global Institute analyzed more than 2,000 jobs covered by more than 800 occupations around the world and found that about 50% of the world's work can be automated by improving existing technologies. Of course, technical feasibility is only one factor that affects the speed and extent of automation. There are other factors to consider, including R&D and application costs, labor market supply and demand, economic benefits, and acceptance by social and government regulators.

Based on the above factors, the McKinsey Global Institute's automated research report points out that more than half of all current work will be automated around 2055, but there are many variables in the process, with an error of about 20 years.

China has become one of the global AI development centers

Academically, in 2015 alone, China and the United States published nearly 10,000 related papers in academic journals, while the total number of academic research articles published by the United Kingdom, India, Germany, and Japan was only half of that. Among them, the development of artificial intelligence in China is mostly led by technology companies, such as automated personal assistants and self-driving cars. Thanks to a large amount of search data and a rich product line, some Internet companies are at the forefront of technologies such as natural language processing, image and speech recognition. However, it is worth noting that although China has surpassed the United States in the number of AI papers, the influence of Chinese scholars is not as good as that of the United States or the United Kingdom.

*The number and influence of Chinese artificial intelligence papers

In terms of artificial intelligence ecosystem, the United States is also more complete and active, and the number of startups far exceeds that of China. The ecosystem of research institutions, universities and private companies is large, innovative and diverse. Silicon Valley's strong strength in the field of technology has created a strong and difficult to replicate advantage.

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