The first month of 2017 is not only the beginning of a new year, it is also the beginning of a new president in the world's most powerful country, the United States, which also represents the upcoming US leadership of the Obama administration over the past eight years. The policy has changed. After the discussion of the famous medical media MobiHealthNews and some experts, I also combined their ideas with some of my own ideas. Here we make the following predictions for the development of the health care field in the coming year.
Trump will reduce the adoption of IT in the medical field after he is elected presidentAlthough most of the things related to President Donald Trump are still in an uncertain state, Chilmark founder and co-management partner John Moore believes that this uncertainty itself will lead to a lot of people in some large Unemployed in health care IT projects or at least forced to take a break.
John Moore believes that “it is precisely because of this hesitation (for example, about the situation in which ACA will be abolished), I believe that health care and healthcare executives need to be very cautious in their future work. Therefore, I think Many large startups in the healthcare IT market will weaken in 2017. But if they have signed a contract, this will be a wide-ranging EHR replacement process or process, although some projects may still continue, but I I think that some more projects may be put on hold. Whether to continue in the future will depend on what will happen in the future."
John Moore believes that today's value-based healthcare is a trend that will continue regardless of what policy direction Donald Trump will have in the future. However, what deserves our attention is that the loss of funds in the medical insurance sector may slow down the development of this value-based business model throughout the healthcare industry.
NIH is responsible for funding precision medicine programs and conquering cancer programs in any way. There are reports that Trump and Vice President Michaels have incentives to support these projects, but at the same time Trump needs to cut spending, so all his planning work and scientific spending are still in an unstable state. Dr. Eric Topol, who led the Scripps Translational Science Institute, received a PMI grant of $207 million. He told Buzzfeed shortly after the election that he was "very worried" about the outcome of the election and he thought The NIH Investment and Biomedical Research Fund “can almost declare a certain riskâ€.
We can see the M&A and IPO market boomUnion Square's venture capital co-founder Fred Wilson wrote on his blog that Trump's tax plan could lead to new cash flow surprises for the company, but it could also translate into a boom in the M&A industry. In terms of digital health care, there have been more and more cases of mergers and acquisitions in the past few years. The flow of funds in this process has been very strong, so in 2017, when we see more and more large amounts Don't be too surprised to see the flow of funds and the increasingly frequent mergers and acquisitions.
In addition, Snapchat predicts that 2017 may also trigger a wave of technical IPOs, and some digital medical companies may be involved in this boom. As for which companies will have the opportunity to go public next year, I want to leave this issue to you. If you feel that you have the right answer, let me know by email or SMS, you can express your predictions on social networking sites like Twitter, about which companies will succeed in IPOs in the coming year.
Pharmaceutical companies' investment in digital health will grow slowly and steadilyEvery year, pharmaceutical companies invest in a larger and larger scale of digital health, such as smart injections from Lilly, or more consumer-oriented applications from AstraZeneca and Novartis, or Johnson & Johnson and Roche will continue to invest in mobile devices to manage diabetes effectively and effectively. At the same time, we have reason to believe that this trend should not continue until 2017.
Moore said that the pharmaceutical industry is slowly growing, although it is slowly approaching people's attention a few years ago, but now they have really entered the digital health care space.
“If you push the first five years, you will find that the pharmaceutical industry is very depressed and heavy, because the price of drugs is getting higher and higher,†he said. “Today, pharmaceutical companies have been able to effectively and formally collect the true response of each patient to the drug, and then price it. Because if the study clearly shows good results for the treatment, then there will be some pricing bonuses and recommendations for using them. The drug is associated."
There will be no major changes in the payer, but hospital price transparency may increaseIn most cases, health care companies have not shown signs of excessive investment in related health areas. This year is different, and today some of the improved applications, the adoption of video access, and the use of wearables and health plans related to payment incentives are proving that today's healthcare sector is thriving, even though these changes are often A few and slow. However, even the small start-up insurance company Oscar Health has now begun to explore the non-traditional digital health and telemedicine industries.
The fact is that the US “medical bill that allows everyone to afford to see a doctor†and the confusion caused by the abolition and substitution of ACA occupy the full focus of major health insurance companies, but some mainstream digital innovations do not have sufficient funds and support. continue.
The tax-free adherence to these plans has persisted, but the abolition of ACA does not mean that consumers will be subject to more and more self-care costs. However, Carena CEO Ralph Derrickon believes that this trend will lead the hospital to provide more help to patients to help them understand the cost of treatment.
“We focus on the rise of consumerism,†Ralph Derrickon said. “This is absolutely true, but how is this trend reflected in real life? Patients will get medical services first, then get the bills, and then the patients will pay their bills instead of paying the bills first and then getting the service. The change will force the health system to have greater incentives to understand what is happening to the patient and what kind of medical services should be available so that the health service system will have more opportunities to get paid.
Health consultation and telemedicine will merge due to the popularity of video accessIt seems safe to predict that telemedicine will continue to grow, but this prediction seems too easy. Companies like Teladoc have been creating new records of monthly telemedicine visits, showing the potential of this market is huge, and the reasons why people choose telemedicine are obvious – consumers are taking offline treatments Medical costs are getting heavier, so today consumers want the healthcare industry to be directly online to consumers like banks and tourism.
But with the competition of large telemedicine companies, they are looking for new ways to differentiate themselves. This year, Teladoc's US subsidiary is continually seeking to enter new areas, such as behavioral health and dermatology, and this trend is likely to continue into next year. In addition, we have begun to see a lot of companies such as American Well partner, Tytocare and EarlySense have started a new attempt. Previously, Doctor on Demand worked with CliniCloud to provide consumers with a number of powerful health devices and services through the use of telemedicine, which are seeking greater market demand, and network-connected devices also provide a distinction for video access companies. Another way of competitors.
License and regulatory barriers to telemedicine will continue to weaken
Another thing paved the way for the development of telemedicine. 2017 is a promising year, and many previous regulatory obstacles have gradually shown signs of weakening. The Federal Council of Medical Professionals has now enacted legislation in 18 of the 50 states to allow them to participate in the Interstate License Agreement, and Michigan will officially join in February. This legislation marks the long-standing legal confrontation between Teladoc and the Texas Medical Board.
Moore tells us that once the legislative obstacles are lifted, the biggest obstacle to telemedicine is reimbursement expenses, a situation that could break the market balance.
“The biggest problem in telemedicine has always been the reimbursement model. For example, how do self-insurance employers pay for treatment? What is the rate?†he said. “Companies like Teladoc have done a good job in this area, but you How can you clearly know how many visits are made on a certain day in the country, and how many of these visits are telemedicine visits, so everything is just the beginning."
Wearable devices will face a transition or demise2016 is an extremely difficult year for the development of wearable devices. Pebble, Basis, Microsoft did not stick to it. Although Jawbone seems to have passed, there is no doubt that 2016 is not good for all companies that develop wearable devices. For example, fitness-related wearable devices have lost their aura, and they have been attracting attention for a while as a popular novelty gadget, but they have not really proven their value as a healthy device. It will be gone. We can't help but wonder, what would be the next trend-setting device?
Dan Ledger, founder of Path CollaboraTIve, negotiated with some wearable device companies that wearable devices require some more novel inventions and are not limited to sports-related areas. This may mean opening up a whole new field of wearables, and no one can now grasp truly high-quality data—such as data related to people's stress index and sleep quality. If a wearable company can effectively and accurately track people's stress parameters and use it as a basis to help users reduce stress, thereby further helping their users to improve sleep quality, this may open a larger market. But in the end, Dan Ledger said that the next step in wearables could involve some more thorough transformation.
"I think if Apple and Fitbit don't make any progress, and if today's technology doesn't produce any results, then we need other companies to take some more radical methods, you know? Maybe not necessarily a wearable device. Maybe we just need to change everything, maybe this device is not needed for us 24 hours a day, maybe each of us will only use five minutes a day." Ledger said, "I don't think those are afraid of any parameters such as shape factor and modality. The people who are questioning will open the next wave of innovation here."
Apple will accelerate its healthcare career, and Verily may notBefore the investigation report, there have been many reports that Apple and the FDA have had a heated discussion about the Parkinson diagnostic application and two cardiac devices. There are even rumors that Apple is working on many mainstream devices for healthcare. Since Apple launched HealthKit in 2014, Apple has launched more digital health products at WWDC every year. For example, ResearchKit was launched in 2015 and CareKit was launched in 2016. No matter what they are developing now, there is a high probability that Apple will announce new health products or services in June this year.
On the other hand, Alphabet has moved away from this stage, which makes Verily's future very uncertain. The company has not yet announced a new partnership, and Verily and NovarTIs have recently delayed the release date of their jointly developed smart contact lenses. We can think that in 2017, Alphabet wants to adopt a more stable development model and concentrate on developing Liftware related products.
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