According to IHS iSuppli's Industrial Electronics Market Tracking Report, the global economy is sluggish and the major semiconductor suppliers have performed poorly. Last year, they continued to kill the vitality of the industrial electronics market, resulting in a decline in overall operating income.
In 2012, the operating income of industrial electronic semiconductors was US $ 30.5 billion, a decrease of 2.8% from the US $ 31.4 billion in 2011. This confirms the forecast of weak growth in the beginning, and also highlights how amazing the market's decline has been-a sharp increase of 36.5% in 2010, and a strong growth of 9.7% in 2011.
However, with the increase in demand and the expected recovery in the second half of the year, the outlook for 2013 will improve. It is expected that the market will continue to expand in the coming years, with a compound annual growth rate of 6.3% from 2011 to 2017. By 2017, operating income will reach about 45.3 billion US dollars, as shown in the figure.
Figure Global Industrial Electronic Semiconductor Business Revenue Forecast (in US $ 1 billion)
With initial optimistic expectations receding and consumers becoming more cautious, both semiconductor manufacturers and original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) were in trouble last year. At the beginning of the year, manufacturing and process automation, energy production and distribution, test and measurement, construction and residential control, and other fields fell in a comprehensive manner, which lowered the overall performance of the industrial electronic semiconductor market. In addition, the global economic weakness has caused the semiconductor industry to stall in the second half of the year.
By the third quarter, several market results that were expected to achieve strong growth were disappointing. Several major suppliers are more optimistic about the expectations of industrial electronics demand in the third quarter, but these expectations ultimately fell short. At the same time, due to the impact of the U.S. fiscal cliff, several major semiconductor suppliers reported slowing sales growth in the Americas.
The weak performance in the third quarter in turn caused uncertainty in the fourth quarter. At that time, several companies in the supply chain of the industrial market issued an early warning of the bleak outlook for the fourth quarter. These vendors include Fairchild Semiconductor, Avago Technologies, Thermo Fisher and Honeywell.
Some of these manufacturers subsequently predicted that 2013 will continue to face uncertainty. Due to the worsening prospects and the worsening situation of industrial customers, Infineon plans to reduce its planned investment in 2013 by 100 million euros. More semiconductor manufacturers are pessimistic about the prospects for recent industrial sales, showing that the current near-term visibility is the worst in history.
Only the two areas of LED lighting and commercial avionics have grown strongly, and will maintain this trend. In the third quarter, LED sales of Philips and Samsung LEDs achieved double-digit year-on-year growth, and other LED suppliers such as LG Innotek, Toshiba and Seoul Semiconductor also achieved high single-digit sales growth. It is expected that the LED market will peak next year, when annual LED sales will increase by more than 30%, reaching 5 billion US dollars.
Sales in the commercial aviation sector also achieved considerable growth in the third quarter, as both EADS and Boeing achieved double-digit growth. Sales of other major OEMs such as UTC and Honeywell also increased significantly in the third quarter, driven by large airlifts, business aircraft and helicopters.
* Jacobo Carrasco-Heres is an industrial electronics analyst at IHS.
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